Europe will dominate the headlines

Home » Forex 14 November 2011

Europe is likely to dominate the headlines once again this week as traders watch political developments in Italy and Greece. The expectation is that national governments will be fully operational in both countries over the coming days so markets will be looking for progress on fiscal initiatives and economic reforms. There are new PMs in place in both countries now, with the Italian lower house of parliament giving its final approval to a package of economic measures over the weekend. Sentiment was also boosted overnight by the news that the Japanese economy grew at an annualised rate of 6.0% in Q3.

The latest developments are helping the euro hold above the $1.37 level versus the USD but markets are likely to be cautious about pushing it higher, given that there is still much uncertainty about the sovereign debt situation. Markets will also be watching to see if the ECB continues to support the Italian bond market. The ECB also holds its monthly non-policy meeting on Thursday. This normally confines itself to the discussion of technical issues but in light of the current uncertain environment and downside risks to growth it is probably worth watching, particularly after last Friday’s comments from the ECB’s Nowotny about

View the Original article

Sterling upside limited following Inflation report

Home » Forex 17 November 2011

After falling to fresh one month lows of $1.3423, the euro has recouped some of the losses seen versus the dollar and yen yesterday with players reported to be taking profits on recent moves. However, as the threat of contagion in the euro zone continues to build many are concerned at how long the single currency can remain resilient to the region’s sovereign debt problems. Though the problems may not be confined to the euro zone with Fitch yesterday warning of the exposure of US banks to European debt, which it described as

View the Original article

Euro gains following last weeks sell off

Home » Forex 21 November 2011

The euro held steady around the $1.35 level in early morning trade, helped by a round of short covering going into the weekend. Reports of an EU paper on the issuance of common bonds also seemed to help the mood, as did news of an outright victory for the conservative party in Spanish elections. The dollar also came under some mild pressure with a US congressional super committee expected to make some formal announcement today on its plans for $1.2 trillion in budgetary savings over the next ten years. At the same time though, the focus remains very much on Europe as markets look for further clarity on the sovereign debt issue. As well as sovereign risk issues, the euro faces some key data releases this week. On Wednesday, November’s flash PMIs are due for release and expected to fall from already weak levels. Other data in the eurozone include a number of key business and consumer confidence and activity reports, including the closely watched German Ifo business climate index for November.

Meanwhile, in the US the main focus of attention will most likely be tomorrow’s release of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which took place at the beginning of the month. Recent US data have been reasonably positive but the outlook remains one of a prolonged period of subtrend growth. This is likely to be reflected in the tone of the minutes, amid ongoing speculation that the Fed may yet provide further quantitative easing if recent underlying weakness in the economy proves persistent. In terms of sterling, which has started the week at $1.575 versus the dollar, markets will be looking to Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the November Bank of England’s policy meeting for some direction, watching the tone of discussions to see if any MPC members are leaning towards voting for further quantitative easing.

Sending money abroad? Converting currency?

View the Original article

Euro under pressure as bond yields spread

Home » Forex 24 November 2011

The euro fell sharply yesterday and overnight on the back of poor debt auction results from Germany, as well as talk that the French-Belgian bailout deal for Dexia bank is not viable under its original terms. France may have to carry a bigger share of the costs, putting even further pressure on its credit rating. Meanwhile, Germany was auctioning

View the Original article

Euro holds modest gains as finance ministers meet

Home » Forex 29 November 2011

The euro is holding on modest gains seen versus the dollar and yen overnight, with optimism that Europe could be finally moving towards comprehensive solutions to its debt crisis leading to a round of short covering. Traders are now focusing on a two day meeting of European finance ministers, which starts later today, to see if the group will provide any further details on plans to beef up the fire power of the regions bailout fund, the EFSF. At summit meetings in late October it was decided to leverage the

View the Original article

FOCUS ON EU SUMMIT AND ECB MEETING

Home » Forex 5 December 2011

As the focus remains on trying to find a comprehensive solution to Europe’s sovereign debt crisis tensions are likely to be running high again this week in the run up to Thursday’s ECB meeting and Friday’s EU Summit. The Summit is expected to put forward proposals for EU treaty changes allowing for greater fiscal union in the euro zone, perceived by many as a crucial part of the solution to the current crisis. The euro was modestly higher overnight, with market sentiment described as guarded following the news of fresh austerity measures in Italy.

With markets so short the euro, there is likely to be some short covering on any good news that comes out of Europe over the coming days. Data released over the weekend showed that by the end of last week, speculators had their largest net short position in 18 months last week. As well as the EU Summit, markets will also be watching Thursday’s ECB policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates for the second consecutive month. The post meeting press conference will be watched carefully as markets look for signs of a softening in tone from the central bank with regards to taking an increased role in the sovereign debt crisis. The ECB is also due to publish its latest staff quarterly economic forecasts.

The first part of the Irish budget package for 2012 will be released today, with spending measures being presented by the Minister for Expenditure and Public Sector Reform Brendan Howlin at 2.30pm this afternoon. Meanwhile, data released this morning showed that the Irish services PMI rose again in November, moving to 52.7 from 51.4 in October. This marks the eleventh month in a row that activity in the sector has increased with last months jump in the new business sub index to 52.6 from 49.7 suggesting further strength ahead.

Sending money abroad? Converting currency?

View the Original article

Forex Technical Update

EUR/USD: EUR is currently trading at 1.3186 levels. Euro collapsed drastically as Fitch joined Moody’s Investors Service in issuing warning that Euro zone may face lower credit ratings, citing the reason that policymakers as having failed to produce decisive measures to end the ongoing crisis. Support is seen at around 1.3000 levels and resistance is seen at around 1.3323 levels. EUR/INR is at 70.28 levels. EUR/INR is likely to trade in the range of 70.00 and 70.60 levels for today. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term Bearish Target 1.30. Exporters can look at covers at 71 levels.

GBP/USD: GBP is currently trading at 1.5605 levels. Risk aversion in the market made the cable weak vs. the US dollar and the cable rallied very strongly vs. the EURO on the back of continuous negative news emerging from the Euro zone. Looking ahead CPI y/y data is expected weak. Support is seen at around 1.5500 levels and resistance is seen at 1.5746 levels (55 days daily EMA). GBP/INR is at 83.16. GBP/INR is likely to trade in the range of 83.00 and 83.50 levels today. GBP/INR may not fall much due to weakening rupee. Maintain short term Bearish and Medium Term Bearish. Target 1.5500 again.

USD/JPY: Yen is currently trading at 77.87 levels. Tertiary Industry Activity m/m data came out better then expected this morning. Support is seen at 77.57 levels (21 and 100 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at around 78.03 levels. Outlook: Short Term slight Bullish and Medium Term: Maintain bearish for the pair. Next target 80

AUD/USD: The commodity currency is currently trading at 1.0070 levels. The commodity currency is trading weak vs. the greenback on the back of risk aversion in the market and weaker Housing Starts q/q data this morning. Support is seen at around 1.0000 levels and resistance is seen at 1.0213 levels (100 days daily EMA). Exporters can cover at round 1.0300 levels and Importers can cover below parity levels. Short Term: Bearish Medium Term: Bearish. Target: 0.9700

Oil: Oil is currently trading at 97.97 levels. Oil is trading in red on concerns that Euro zone will not be able to tame it massive debt crisis. Support is seen at 95.47 levels (55 days daily EMA) while resistance is seen at around 101.41 levels. Outlook: Short term bearish and medium term bearish. Target 90-95 levels again. Look at shorts at stiff resistances for medium term.

Gold: Gold is currently trading at 1655 levels. Gold collapsed drastically over night as continuing global weakness made the Investors to buy more US Dollars and to sell the precious metal. Support is seen at around 1650 levels (200 days daily EMA) and resistance is seen at 1693.28 levels (21 days weekly EMA). As suggested earlier stay away from longs until we see significant corrections. Look at Initiating shorts at good resistances. Outlook stays bearish may target 1600-1650 soon. Look at shorts.

Dollar Index: DI is currently trading at 79.57 levels. US Dollar rallied strongly and the investors’ dump the riskier assets after Fitch and Moody’s Investors Service issued warning that Euro zone may face lower credit ratings as the recent EU summit didn’t produced any concrete solution to end the Euro zone crisis. Support is seen at around 79.33 levels and resistance is seen at around 80.00 levels. Short term and Medium Term: Bullish. Target 81.

About the Author

India Forex

DISCLAIMER

These views/ forecasts/ suggestions, though proferred with the best of intentions, are based on our reading of the market at the time of writing. They are subject to change without notice.Though the information sources are believed to be reliable, the information is not guaranteed for accuracy. Those acting in the market on the basis of these are themselves responsible for any profits or losses that might occur, without recourse to us. World financial markets, and especially the Foreign Exchange markets, are inherently risky and it is assumed that those who trade these markets are fully aware of the risk of real loss involved.

More from India Forex: (12 December 2011) (06 December 2011) (05 December 2011) (02 December 2011) (30 November 2011) Latest in Technical AnalysisDec 13 07:35 GMT - Daily FX StrategyDec 13 07:29 GMT - Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Le...Dec 13 07:12 GMT - Dec 13 07:08 GMT - Foreign Exchange Market CommentaryDec 13 06:30 GMT - European FX Report: AUD/USDDec 13 06:06 GMT - EUR/USD Sinks On Euro Zone Uncerta...Dec 13 04:16 GMT - Daily Technical AnalysisDec 13 03:56 GMT - Market Morning BriefingDec 13 03:36 GMT - The Daily Forecaster: USDJPYDec 13 03:08 GMT - FX Technical CommentaryDec 13 02:55 GMT - USD/CHF Technicals

View the Original article

All Focus on the ECB Policy meeting

Home » Forex 8 December 2011

All eyes will be on today’s ECB policy meeting, with the central bank widely expected to cut interest rates for the second consecutive month. Our forecasts show a cut of 0.25% but we would not rule out the possibility of a more aggressive move. Meanwhile, the post meeting press conference will be watched carefully as markets look for signs of a softening in tone from the central bank with regards to taking an increased role in the region’s sovereign debt crisis. Any disappointment in terms of what the ECB delivers could weigh heavily on the euro. Meanwhile, a two day summit of EU leaders gets underway later today, again a critical event for the euro. French and German officials said yesterday they are confident that several European Union nations, in addition to the 17 members of the euro zone, will sign up for greater central supervision of their national budgets, even if they have little optimism of rallying all 27 EU countries. The euro is holding up well versus the dollar ahead of the day’s events, with talk of preparations for a break up of the single currency in the Wall Street Journal appearing to have little real impact.

The Bank of England also makes a policy announcement today. We expect no policy changes before year end but the likelihood is that further quantitative easing (QE) will be introduced before too long. Data released in the UK yesterday showed that industrial production fell sharply in October, with manufacturing output slowing to its weakest level since January 2010. Output was down 0.7% on the month, leaving it up just 0.3% in year-on-year terms. Sterling saw one month highs versus the euro yesterday with markets on edge ahead of today’s key events and some evidence of safe haven flows. Versus the dollar, the GBP also saw gains despite the weak manufacturing data.

Sending money abroad? Converting currency?

View the Original article

Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.3135(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3116, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3092. Break of the latter would result in 1.3064. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3037. Continuation will give 1.3016 and 1.3004.

Today's resistance: - 1.3236 and 1.3273(main). Break would give 1.3314, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3338. Break of the latter would result in 1.3369. If a strong impulse, we’d see 1.3388. Continuation will give 1.3410.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 77.68 and 77.43(main). Break would bring 77.13, where correction is possible. Then 76.92, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 76.73. If a strong impulse, we would see 76.50. Continuation would give 76.39.

Today's resistance: - 78.12, 78.47 and 78.72(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 78.96, where also a correction may be. Then 79.23. If a strong impulse, we would see 79.45. Continuation will give 79.64.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 11930.20 and 11882.84(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 11846.25, where correction also can be. Then follows 11817.14. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 11795.63. Continuation will bring 11768.20 and 11744.92.

Today's resistance: - 12153.14, 121223.11and 12240.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12256.88, where a correction may happen. Then follows 12273.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we’d see 12300.64. Continuation would bring 12323.34.

About the Author

FXtechtrade

Disclaimer: Any information presented by Nikolajs Serikovs at this very website should be in no way understood as an offer, promise or guarantee for receiving a profit or avoiding the losses. Stated here levels of support and resistance must not be construed as an investment advice or endorsement for any financial instrument. There exists no guarantee that the market would behave in accordance with the information stated here Prepared in Republic of Latvia for the worldwide distribution.

More from FXtechtrade: (12 December 2011) (09 December 2011) (08 December 2011) (07 December 2011) (06 December 2011) Latest in Technical AnalysisDec 13 07:35 GMT - Daily FX StrategyDec 13 07:29 GMT - Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Le...Dec 13 07:12 GMT - Forex Technical UpdateDec 13 07:08 GMT - Foreign Exchange Market CommentaryDec 13 06:30 GMT - European FX Report: AUD/USDDec 13 06:06 GMT - EUR/USD Sinks On Euro Zone Uncerta...Dec 13 04:16 GMT - Daily Technical AnalysisDec 13 03:56 GMT - Market Morning BriefingDec 13 03:36 GMT - The Daily Forecaster: USDJPYDec 13 03:08 GMT - FX Technical CommentaryDec 13 02:55 GMT - USD/CHF Technicals

View the Original article

Eyes On European Confidence And U.K Inflation Figures

With the start of this week, pessimism dominated the market after investors started to weigh the results of the European Summit, as markets were disappointed after leaders weren’t able to meet market expectations, yet the pessimism seen started on Thursday and extended through Friday to this week driven by the ECB President who declined to involve the Bank in Financing governments and buying European indebted bonds.

European leaders were able on Friday to create the so called

View the Original article

The Asian-session daily update

EMAIL PRINT SAVE THIS STORY SHARE RSS Pessimism spread in Asia after European leaders in their fifth attempt to draw a line under their debt woes and was not able to meet investors' speculation over the ECB role in fighting back the crisis, which in result led currencies in Asia to decline with the start of this week.

View the Original article

Euro Technical Major Currencies (2011-12-13)

The pair failed to settle above the level of 1.3380, and then breached the level of 1.3270, which led us to negate our positive outlook and recognize a descending channel that controlled the pair's movement from the top at 1.4247. Now, momentum indicators are within oversold areas, but consolidation below the main resistance of the descending channel at 1.3380 drives us to expect a downside movement today, in attempts to breach the level of 1.3145 and then moving south towards areas around 1.3000, passing through the minor support level at 1.3120.

The trading range for today is among the major support at 1.3000 and the major resistance at 1.3380.

The short-term trend is to the upside with steady daily closing above 1.2795 targeting 1.5135

View the Original article

Great British Pound vs. Japanese Yen (2011-12-13)

The pair continues to trade within the side-ways range -shown on image- after attempting to breach the support of the range once. Accordingly, we will continue to hold onto our weekly scenario as the pair should breach either the support of the range at 121.00 or the resistance at 122.25. Therefore, we recommend reviewing our weekly report for more details.
The trading range for the day may be among the 119.30 support and 123.15 resistance. The short term trend is to the downside targeting 122.00 so long as 150.00 remain intact.

Previous Report

Weekly Report

Support121.00120.70120.00119.30119.00Resistance122.25122.60123.15123.80124.30RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above we recommend buying the pair with a breach above 122.25 targeting 124.00 and stop loss below 121.00 OR selling the pair with a breach below 121.00 targeting 119.30 and stop loss above 122.25 may be appropriate For more forex information, go to www.ecpulse.com Share

View the Original article

Daily Report: Euro Stays Pressured on Downgrade Worry

Market sentiments remain pressured by threat of European downgrades by rating agencies. After S&P and Moody's, Fitch criticized yesterday that there is a "lack of comprehensive solution" to the European debt crisis and that "increased short-term pressure on Eurozone sovereign credit profiles and ratings". Fitch warned that "the crisis will continue at varying levels of intensity throughout 2012 and probably beyond, until the region is able to sustain broad economic recovery." Fitch also forecasted a "significant economic downturn across the region". Fitch also urged ECB to "step up its actions in support of its sovereign shareholders as a quid pro quo for institutional and legal changes that gave the ECB greater confidence in the long-run commitment of euro-zone governments to fiscal discipline appear to have been misplaced".
Euro is seen broadly weak since the week started. EUR/USD's break of 1.3212 support is raising the chance that whole medium term decline from 1.4939 is resuming. Near term focus is back on 1.3145 support and break will confirm and should send the pair through 1.3 psychological level. EUR/GBP also dived sharply to resume the decline form 0.9083 and should be now heading to 0.8284 key support next. A main source of weakness could be found in today's bond auctions. The EFSF bailout fund is set to auction as much as EUR 2b of 91 day bills today. Greek will auction EUR 1.25b of 182 day bills. Belgium will sell EUR 1.2b of short term debts while Spain will sell 364 day an 553 day bills.
FOMC meeting will be another major focus. With operation twist started and recent economic data improved, policymakers would prefer to stand on the sideline and monitor the developments. The meeting would again focus on tools to improving communication with the market. However, we do not expect any material outcome at least until January when Chairman Ben Bernanke holds a press conference and when the latest economic projections are released. More in FED to Stay on the Sideline in December. Discussion on Improving Communication to Continue.
Concerning the dataflow, UK's CPI probably moderated to

View the Original article

Euro vs. Great British Pound (2011-12-13)

The pair violated the 0.8525 critical support which is the 76.4% Fibonacci correction for the bullish wave from 0.8354-0.9083, and this signals that the main descending channel is still controlling the pair's movement and more downside pressure is likely. Main target is at the 100% level around 0.8354, taking into consideration that breaching 0.8525 may delay acquiring the awaited target. The trading range for the day may be among the 0.8385 support and 0.8765 resistance.
The short term trend is to the downside targeting 122.00 so long as 150.00 remain intact.
Previous ReportWeekly ReportSupport0.84150.83850.83550.83000.8280Resistance0.84600.85250.86050.86350.8680RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above we recommend selling the pair around 0.8525 targeting 0.8415,stop loss with four-hour closing above 0.8605 may be appropriate For more forex information, go to www.ecpulse.com Share

View the Original article

GBP/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 120.80; (P) 121.29; (R1) 121.88; More
GBP/JPY is still staying in range of 120.75/122./.56 and intraday bias remains neutral. Break of 120.75 will indicate that choppy recovery from 119.37 is finished will flip bias back to the downside for this support first. Break will confirm resumption of fall from 127.30 and should target a test on 116.96 low next. On the upside, above 122.56 will bring another rise to extend the recovery from 119.37. But we'd expect upside to be limited by 50% retracement of 127.30 to 119.37 at 123.33 and bring fall resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal in GBP/JPY as it's still staying well below the falling 55 weeks EMA (now at 127.67). The down trend from 2007 high of 251.09 is still expected to continue to 61.8% projection of 215.87 to 118.81 from 163.05 at 103.06, which is close to 100 psychological level. On the upside, break of 130.83 resistance is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, medium term outlook will remain bearish even in case of further rebound.


View the Original article

Great British Pound (GBP) Technical Major Currencies (2011-12-13)

The consolidation continued around the initial support of 1.5590 where 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the downside rally from 1.6615 to the former low of 1.5270. Actually, the negative daily closing below SMA20 & SMA50 combination is seen as a proof that Cable may clear the aforementioned important level. At the same time, Stochastic continues reflecting its bearish tendency; thus, we hold onto our bearish predictions over intraday basis, supported by the harmonic outlook over short term basis. A break of 1.5420 will accelerate declines towards 1.5270.
The trading range for today is among key support at 1.5375 and key resistance at 1.5820.
The general trend over short term basis is to the downside, targeting 1.4225 as far as areas of 1.6875 areas remain intact.
Previous Report Weekly Report
Harmonic short term outlookSupport1.55401.55101.54601.54201.5375Resistance1.56301.56801.57201.57801.5820RecommendationBased on the charts and explanations above our opinion is, selling the pair below 1.5590 targeting 1.5270 and stop loss above 1.5780 might be appropriate.


View the Original article

Forex and Dow Jones recommended levels

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.3135(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3116, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3092. Break of the latter would result in 1.3064. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3037. Continuation will give 1.3016 and 1.3004.
Today's resistance: - 1.3236 and 1.3273(main). Break would give 1.3314, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3338. Break of the latter would result in 1.3369. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3388. Continuation will give 1.3410.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 77.68 and 77.43(main). Break would bring 77.13, where correction is possible. Then 76.92, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 76.73. If a strong impulse, we would see 76.50. Continuation would give 76.39.
Today's resistance: - 78.12, 78.47 and 78.72(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 78.96, where also a correction may be. Then 79.23. If a strong impulse, we would see 79.45. Continuation will give 79.64.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 11930.20 and 11882.84(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 11846.25, where correction also can be. Then follows 11817.14. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 11795.63. Continuation will bring 11768.20 and 11744.92.
Today's resistance: - 12153.14, 121223.11and 12240.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 12256.88, where a correction may happen. Then follows 12273.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 12300.64. Continuation would bring 12323.34.

Related Articles Australian Stock Market Report - Afternoon 12/13/2011 (6:54 am) Australian Stock Market Report - Morning 12/13/2011 (12:05 am) Global Markets Overview 12/13/2011 (12:02 am) Related Topics

View the Original article

Euro vulnerable following EU Summitt

Home » Forex 12 December 2011

The euro has started the week on the back foot versus other majors, dragged down by on-going talk of debt downgrades for Europe from Standard and Poor’s, despite the fact that the EU Summit reached a deal on Friday to tighten fiscal rules. The rating agency has yet to give its opinion on the deal and its comments are eagerly awaited. Many are treating the latest deal with caution, in particular given the UK’s opposition to it. According to a poll in the UK Times voters overwhelmingly back Prime Minister David Cameron for using his veto on the pact to toughen EU treaties without any new safeguards for London’s financial centre. As a result, the new fiscal rules will have to operate as an intergovernmental agreement instead of being enforced through a treaty change, which would need unanimous support. Ireland, however, may still require a referendum on the issue but the government is awaiting formal legal advice on this.

Market sentiment will continue to be driven by events in Europe, but the focus should turn to the US tomorrow with the Fed meeting to discuss US monetary policy for the last time this year. No policy changes are anticipated but markets will be watching the tone of its statement carefully. Meanwhile, markets will be looking to available US data for further confirmation that the economy is holding up reasonably well going into the year end. Data from the euro zone, however, are not expected to be uplifting. The release of the flash manufacturing and services PMIs for December should feature top of the agenda, with the data expected to show a further deterioration in activity levels. This should further cement the markets’ view that the region is back in recession. Meanwhile, the German ZEW index is also expected to fall again as the sovereign debt crisis continues to weigh.

Sending money abroad? Converting currency?

View the Original article